HOW NOT TO PUT TOP-15 ERRORS OF NEWS
All of the above situations relate to betting on football, but many of the points can be directly transferred and applied to other disciplines with which you interact. It is enough to move your brains a little.
1. BETS ON FAVORITES WINS
One of the most common mistakes when selecting specific bets is the emphasis on favorites wins. It would seem, what could be more obvious than the victory of Barcelona, Bayern, Real, Manchester. However, as practice shows, this is an unprofitable approach at a distance.
The thing is that bookmakers initially set low, understated quotes for the favorites’ victories. They do this because they perfectly predict the behavior of the “betting herd”, the crowd. If the favorite wins in a particular match, then the office will pay at much more modest quotes, which means that the amount of payments will be less than it should be. At a distance, this translates into serious savings for the bookmaker and a significant loss for “popov” who like to play favorites. In addition, as the rates on this leverage arrive, the load is also included, which aggravates the drawdown of the indicators.
Every favorite is overtaken by crisis periods, they give a certain amount of misfires for the season. A simple experiment is enough. Download coefficients from the archive, similar to the Odds portal and calculate what would happen if you bet the entire season on the victories of one of the high-profile giants in a row. And there will be a minus. So it’s not worth taking victories of obvious favorites. There are almost never any fair quotes for them. It is better to abandon such straightforward bets as wins altogether, or focus on finding the so-called hidden favorites, which bookmakers still assess fairly, or even underestimate.
2. ANALYSIS OF BOOKMAKER ODDS
Very often we hear that beginners and not too sophisticated bettors analyze games directly according to the bookmaker’s list, according to the odds. They look at where the odds are equal – there the match is equal, or just specific outcomes are equally probable. If somewhere the quote is small, then this is a very confident event, with the probability of entry tending to 100%. It’s amazing why, with this approach, the overwhelming majority of players are in the red. And even for the presence of the bookmaker’s margin, the commission included in each coefficient does not explain what is happening, since the rate of withdrawal is usually orders of magnitude faster than a standard margin of 2.5-5% could lead to it.
The roots of this error lie in the statements of the bookmakers themselves that their quotes reflect the real probability. In practice, the coefficients are quite close and objective, but not always. Especially when it comes to popular, hype matches, where the bulk of betting fans “graze”. As a result of speculative distortions and progression, it turns out that the main crowd is playing at deliberately underestimated indicators, which leads them to a minus even at a short distance. The negative trend only gets worse over a long time frame.
Conclusion: the coefficient is a speculative indicator, which, in addition to the probability, can vary greatly from completely biased influences and factors. Attempts to analyze matches along the line is one of the biggest mistakes. You should analyze yourself, evaluate the likelihood of a particular outcome. And only then make a decision whether the bookmaker’s odds are profitable or fair. And if the office’s quotation is greatly underestimated, then refuse to bet on this match, otherwise the minus in the distance will not be long in coming. Only in this sequence should one act, but not vice versa.
3. COMPLICATING BETS FOR THE SAKE OF INCREASING THE ODDS
Many financial strategies set limits on the ratios used. A lower limit is usually set. The upper one is also limited, but more problems tend to reach the lower bar.
Again, beginners hunt for bets on favorites, or on other outcomes that are overly confident in their opinion. They get low coefficients that do not reach the bottom bar. Regulated strategy. Hence, there is a logical desire to increase the coefficients:
- Strengthen the rate (instead of just winning a handicap with a minus, instead of ITB (1.5) – ITB (2), instead of TB (2.5) – TB (3) and similar moves);
- Complicate with additional conditions, use combined bets (outcome and total, both will score and total, outcome and both will score, time / match and others);
- Build multiples of multiple events with low odds.
If initially the quotes on the selected side are underestimated, then the player will receive underestimated indicators using such methods. In absolute terms, this can be a large value, but relative to the real probability there will be underweight, which will lead to a minus in distance.
If the coefficient is fair and not objectively high enough, then all the same, not all methods of artificially increasing it are equally useful. Handicap (-1), relative to a victory is normal, an increase in the total of 0.5, with the possibility of a return – the same completely. It is advisable to collect multiples from simple outcomes, prefer double chances than wins. All the other variants of complication in 99% of cases are adventurous and do not promise anything good in terms of distance.
4. BUILD TOO BIG EXPRESS TRAINS
Another common mistake mainstream players make is the tendency to build big express trains. Yes, you can bet a little and win a lot, that’s all great. However, one must understand that bets are lost, and not only for objective reasons, because of an incorrect forecast, but also under the blows of force majeure, an accident in sports. It is important to understand that the more events you combine into an express, the higher the likelihood that such a loss will creep in there due to an annoying force majeure. That is, when we play with independent bets, a certain amount of such illogical losses happens and is added to the percentage of negative iterations. This squashes the total cross-country ability, but not critical. If the player gives a plus in distance, then this will be a profit. If at least one such minus creeps into the perfect express train, then it loses.
Another important point: each outcome in the bookmaker’s line carries a commission, a margin. So, when multiplying the coefficients in the express, the margin is also multiplied. As a result, a multi bet with the same size of the final coefficient, but a different number of events, has a different real probability of entering. The more elements are included, the lower this probability. So don’t overuse big express trains. Rather, it is pampering, akin to the lottery, but not serious betting.
5. ROLEPLAYING AND DOGON
Often, after losing, a morally unstable player tries to win back immediately. He either simply deposits new money into the bookmaker’s account, or on top of that, begins to increase rates, to catch up in order to cover the annoying minus. This is absolutely impossible to do. There must be a system, a plan, a goal, a strategy for achieving the goal. If a loss was recorded, first you need to understand the reasons, learn a lesson, clearly formulate new rules for yourself, in order to avoid relapses, and not rush to recoup. Eliminate this word from your betting vocabulary altogether.
6. FINAL ROUNDS OF THE GROUP STAGES
In such tournaments as the Champions League, Europa League, World or European Championships among national teams, the so-called group stage is held. Usually there are 4 teams, but there are exceptions, for example, in qualifying rounds for the same forums at the national team level, it’s not the point. The idea is that 2 out of 4 teams go further from the groups. Sometimes even the third place gives some options. The idea is that ignorant players bet with equal confidence and agility on the favorites, both in the first rounds of the group stage and in the final ones. Thus, they very often miss the thread of real motivation.
The fact is that to get out of the subgroup, you need to score more points than your competitors. Accordingly, in 4-5 starting rounds, many leaders are already deciding the issue. Before the remaining 1-2 rounds, they break away from their pursuers enough, and in fact no longer have the same motivation that they had initially. It is not uncommon to observe in such games the appearance of a semi-reserve or even a completely duplicate squad on the field. Dull players continue to bet on the name, on the nominal class. Although unmotivated, playing outside the main lineup, such teams often really lose their status as favorites.
7. THE RETURN LEG OF THE TWO-LEGGED PLAYOFFS
A similar picture befell the ignorant in the playoffs of the same tournaments. They see a match between a nominally stronger team and a weaker opponent, and they bet simply on the leader’s victory, or even on a negative handicap. And these characters are not at all embarrassed that this is the second match, often away, and in the first meeting the favorite has already defeated his opponent with a difference of 2-5 goals. If the total score is kept on the sum of two meetings, then why, one wonders, does the favorite need this second victory? Actually, there is no need. Sometimes they win, sometimes they don’t, they can make a draw or even lose, but still go further. So, in such a motivational scenario, in no case should you bet on the favorite’s second victory, if there was a confident triumph in the first match. You should either abandon bets on the return leg altogether, or consider just the options to play on the underdog,but not a loss, for a home goal of prestige, perhaps even a plus handicap will be for a decent coefficient.
8. FAVORITES BY MARGIN
A similar approach to betting on leaders should be applied in the domestic championships of countries. The fact is that the struggle for high places, the championship, the Eurocup zone, is conducted here according to the sum of the points scored in the table. When a team breaks away by 6 or more points, that is, at the distance of two victories, this very often provokes a weakening of concentration. It happens that the coach manages to whip up the team for some time. But if such a gap has formed and is growing, then you should keep your ears open. That and look, a misfire is expected, which means: a lost bet. Of course, the favorites lose points in other phases of the championship as well, but the moment with the loss of acute motivation is the most classic. We have already spoken about bets on favorites in general, but if you are considering such options, refrain at least from playing on those favorites,which already have a significant gap.
You can see the statistics of past seasons. Whoever it is: PSG, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Juventus, relaxation overtakes them at the end of the season, and especially when the championship is achieved ahead of schedule.
9. BETS ON THE FIRST ROUNDS OF CHAMPIONSHIPS
Another common mistake players make at the operational level is betting on championships or any tournaments in general right after a pause, a break in the off-season. It is clear that many are seized by the desire to bet, and on what is not important, such a “ludomaniac” urge. This is how betters reach bets on starting rounds. Forecasting approaches can be different. Someone looks at the odds, someone at the statistics. In this case, we have to build on the statistics of the past season. The only correct basis for predictions can only be objective information arising from recent games. In the offseason, the line-up, coach, and management often change. So a completely different team can start a new segment. And even if the backbone is preserved, the condition and physical readiness after the vacation and training camp may differ significantly from thatwhat took place in the middle or at the end of the last championship. So until at least 5 starting rounds have passed, it’s ridiculous to draw any conclusions. Therefore, it is necessary to start putting on not earlier.
10. PLAYING ON YOUR FAVORITE TEAMS
A textbook mistake of many players who came to betting from the camp of ordinary football fans is to bet on their favorite teams. When we try to predict the result of a match in which one of the parties is not indifferent, then an objective analysis will fail. Very often, the forecaster passes off the team’s desired capabilities as valid, which entails losses.
If you have such clubs or national teams for which you are really seriously worried, consider them to be your teams, then leave them aside, outside the brackets. Watch their meetings for fun. You need to bet on the fights of those teams for which you have no irrational impulses. Only in this way will the assessments be sober and accurate.
11. BETTING ON NAMES AND OLD INFORMATION
Very often one has to deal with significant inertia of impressions from some commands in the brains of sports analysts. Once the club could shine, win championship titles, both in the domestic championship and in the international arena. This is how the bettor remembers it. Years pass, in some, especially clinical cases – decades. The team has long lost that winning line-up, often banal due to old age, generational change. Already a different coach, different players, a different budget and sponsors. The results are also different. The team barely rises above the middle of the table, and sometimes everything is even worse. But the player, who has “not updated the cash” in his head, continues to associate this logo, name and club colors with good play and claims to high places. Places bets, perceiving such a team as a favorite.But the results are unstable and a lot of bets are burned out. The conclusion is very simple: take your head out of a known place and start analyzing the current state of the commands. Stop betting on the realities of the distant past, roughly speaking, on your desires and wishes, start perceiving and investing objective reality in forecasts.
12. UNDERESTIMATION OF “NO-NAME”
It often happens that a bettor is considering a match, and in it he knows only one team. This happens with not too sophisticated betting fans who really don’t know the entire composition of the championship, where they are getting involved. Or it could be a league rookie from a lower division. Also, as a variant of the meeting with the “dark horse” – these are the qualification games of the Champions League or the Europa League. It is impossible to keep track of all the numerous championships of the Old World. So, putting on a well-known team, perceiving the “no-name” a priori is weaker, the bettor enters into unknown dangerous territory.
Of course, representatives of little-known peripheral championships are indeed often immeasurably weaker. However, you should not rely on this alone. Moreover, they do not meet with the very cream, the giants, but with the very average teams of the TOP leagues. In general, you do not know enough about one of the teams in a duel: either collect information, or bypass such a match by the tenth route.
13. PULLING THE “OWL ON THE GLOBE”
Very often there is a vicious practice: to bet at all costs on a specific match. Some kind of duel comes up with a fairly loud signboard and the better starts to literally pull by the ears, come up with what to bet on. Very often the match is incomprehensible, the outcomes are not obvious from whatever side. The victory does not inspire confidence, well then, let’s take both goals or TB (2.5).
Naturally, bets made on this principle will not show positive cross-country ability at a distance. Why they are so needed is not entirely clear. Only for the sake of satisfying the “ludomaniac” craving for the betting process and the expectation of a win. These are painful manifestations. Of course, this practice has nothing to do with making money. If a clear prediction and a logical outcome for making a bet are not visible in a match, then such a fight should simply be discarded and others should be considered. This is not a big deal if you think about it.
14. A LOT OF BETS OR A LITTLE
Many newbies suffer from excessive betting involvement, trying to do as many iterations as possible in a day. A huge stream of attempts, of course, contributes to the rapid turnover of the bank. However, in itself, the accelerated scrolling of the bank roll does not make any sense if the traffic is low. And this is exactly what it usually happens, if we consider even the average distance. The fact is that it is impossible to analyze hundreds of matches per day with sufficient quality. And the transition beyond the level of 20-30 forecasts will already significantly hit the quality. In any case, you can always choose from this volume of events up to ten of the most reliable ones. It is worth betting on them, instead of splitting the bank between hundreds of bets a day.
If you make too many bets a day, then forecasting is reduced only to a cursory assessment of statistics on services like Myscore. This practice has repeatedly proven its ineffectiveness. Statistical calculations are already included in the odds, it is unrealistic to beat the bookmaker on these grounds at a distance. This can be done only when operating with a more extensive complex of real factors that reflect not only the past, but also directly affect the future result. These include: motivation, lineups, fresh news from the teams’ stans. It takes time to collect the proper pool of information. This means that it is unrealistic to cover more than 20-30 events per day without losing quality. So do it, it is better to reduce the coverage than to spray and go to the minus.
15. FOR ALL THE MONEY. GREED AND INSURANCE
In conclusion, one more mistake: flirting the entire pot at once. Again, a lot of events are taken and the entire deposit is played on them, there is no free money left in the bookmaker’s account. To perform the following actions, you have to wait until some bets are calculated.
The problem is that this approach saves the player from the powerful option of insuring their pre-match bets. If, before the start of the game, some important information appears that jeopardizes the initial forecast and the rate, it is unreasonable to wait and rely on luck that it will come in somehow. It is worth in another office to make a “fork” for the opposite outcome, to exit the game with minimal losses. Also, such overlaps in order to fix profits in a favorable course of the match, or in order to save at least a part of the amount, in case of unfavorable development, are made live. But in order to overlap, you need free funds. This is why the pros never play more than 50% of the pot at the same time. In general, it is recommended to flirt with no more than 20-30% at a time.