WHAT TYPES OF UNCERTAINTY SHOULD BE CONSIDERED
At any time and regardless of various factors, it is extremely difficult to beat the bookmaker. This does not apply to ordinary bets on luck, which come in every few dozen matches, but to the long-term perspective. That is why we advise you to use effective and proven strategies, adjusting and modeling them for your own style of betting. This is the only way to really have chances of winning in bookmakers. As you know, in order to get the desired profit, you need to cover the margin. This is not an easy task and it will take a lot to calculate, think, work out a plan of action, which will make it possible to earn a lot, consistently, somewhere by 10-20%. The rest is decided by the uncertainty indicator.
What is it and why is it mentioned in the context of bookmaker companies? Everyone knows about the professionalism of bookmakers, which, as you know, will not work at a loss. Therefore, companies try to anticipate all uncertainties, covering it with ratios and margins. Beginners are constantly being led to this and, probably, the tactic will never go out of fashion: “I bet on the favorites, that is, on the lowest odds!”. A terrible option, which the language does not dare to call a strategy. But she is still thriving and brings in a lot of money for bookmakers. Yes, in a similar format, because there is no point in betting on 1.01-1.2 even millions. Therefore, beginners add to their tactics another option for quickly draining money – express trains. When a coupon has 3-7 events with low odds, the total will also not exceed 2-3. Each individual outcome is considered an additional risk,even when the favorites play, against the teams of the 10-20th league, if there are any, of course. There is a chance to win, but to lose 10 times more.
It is quite possible to try to reduce the uncertainty, however, when studying the issue in detail, it becomes clear that the bookmaker has more chances in this regard, and therefore asymmetry is already observed at this stage. Many companies promise that all opportunities are distributed in such a way that each side has the same options for earning, that is, 50 to 50. The more arrogant indicate 60 to 40 in favor of betters, but everyone should finally understand that no gambling platform would exist in the market, constantly losing money. This cannot be considered a deception, because the principle is simple – you want to bet or not make predictions. Well, asymmetry is already a delicate matter and is present in almost every field of activity.
Uncertainty can be of the following types:
- Statistical. In this case, the uncertainty is considered natural, that is, it is due to changes in probability. For example, a tennis player has a powerful serve that brings him 10-15 aces per set. The probability of repetition decreases depending on the time of the match – the more the athlete plays, the correspondingly less strength. Additionally, there is uncertainty about receiving / not receiving damage. In simple words, it is impossible to predict the course of the match. This is why statistical uncertainty is unaffected. Many will object and say that if there is a sufficient amount of information, it is quite realistic to calculate everything. But even a change in wind direction or other similar factors affects the likelihood of winning. Nobody knows what will happen in the match. From a technical point of view, there are no difficulties – came out, played,won / lost. But in reality, everything is much more complicated.
- True. Everything is simple here: the athlete / team wins or not. That is, the better’s chances of winning are 0% or 100%. 50% are responsible for the return accordingly. True uncertainty, like probability, is beyond analysis. In this case, the player can only reason on the basis of assumptions. Therefore, such bets are more likely to be lucky, which is often used by beginners and even pros.
- Model. When there is an understanding of the model, that is, all the information for making predictions, it is quite easy to make the right one, at least at first glance. But often, even a correct forecast does not bring profit for various reasons. For example, the bettor is sure that the Catalans will definitely win the Barcelona – Eibar match. He understands the model accordingly – “Barcelona” needs to win to win the championship or the cup, there are no injuries, the squad is fighting. The bet has been made and the matter is small. However, in training right before the game, 2 of Barcelona’s best players are injured. Who could have known about this? That’s right, there are no such people. Accordingly, one moment affected the probability, culminating in uncertainty.
It is extremely difficult to understand to what extent the results will be determined by a particular type of uncertainty. Although you can take this into account, but again, the risks are huge, and the chances are close to zero.
THE MAIN NUANCES OF THE ASYMMETRY OF BOOKMAKING
The betting sphere is considered to be quite well thought out, because the companies expose their options and the price, after which the player must decide whether to bet or not. When the odds are good and the bettors are satisfied, they analyze the probability of their passing and invest a certain amount of money to make a bet. If the player has already accepted the challenge, then the bookmaker has no right to mark the bet. At least this is inherent in proven and reliable gambling platforms that you can trust. Fraudulent bookmakers do what they want, so you shouldn’t even discuss their approach to activities.
Nobody, except for some employees of the betting company, knows about the true odds. They can be underestimated, and this is quite understandable, as well as a common practice. For example, in a match between a favorite and an outsider, the odds are 1.5-3.1. However, the bookmaker knows from insider information that a stronger team does not need a victory in this game at all and the true quotes look something like this: 1.9-2.2. Some offices put it this way, but many still put it 1.5-3.1. In this case, this is a rather risky step if the company has many registered pros. But again, there are still enough of those who place bets only on the leaders, analyzing only some of their matches or personal meetings with an opponent.
In order not to “run” the world of betting in favor of bookmakers, their approach to providing odds must be independent. Moreover, the strategies and models of the players are not taken into account. Ideally, there should be symmetry, but asymmetry with a slight advantage on the BC side is also not such a bad thing. If the bookmaker goes too far and manipulates quotes, then one day there will be many who will beat him. Huge money will be paid to these betters or not, the question is different. The bottom line, however, is that asymmetry is not considered good or bad, especially with careful analysis and a proven strategy. If the bookie is wrong, you can go up well. This happens quite often, but mostly companies make returns when betters have won a lot of money as a result of a mistake. In this case, it cannot be called a fraud either,but in another case, an incorrectly set coefficient may be offered on purpose. And the player does not know about it, and the asymmetry in this case is negative.
Betters cannot see the true odds, but with the help of careful analysis and strict adherence to the established strategy, you can constantly look for good options for making money, regardless of the established opinion that it is completely unrealistic to beat the bookmaker due to asymmetry. Everything is possible and it is only important to choose an excellent office that will not be “offended” by the fact that players take advantage of its mistakes and will not block accounts or cut limits.
THE MOST COMMON MISTAKES BOOKMAKERS MAKE
Taking into account the presence of asymmetry, we can note the fact that bookmakers still have an influence on the possibilities of bettors. In simple words, even odds of 1.6 instead of 1.9 are considered a significant difference, especially if the player operates with large amounts for bets. There are only a few such changes and the company’s risks are already decreasing. The player also does not risk anything, but he also loses a certain share of the money, which should be attributed to asymmetry, but on the other hand, it will not be such. Why? Because initially both parties are at risk, both the bookmaker and the player. In the first case, the company can “burn out” if the bettor bets a big sum at high odds and wins. When a player places a bet on an impressive size of quotes, he also has a risk that his forecast will not go through. Let’s just say – few people generally bet on high odds.
However, bookmakers themselves often make mistakes, even without manipulating odds. How does this happen:
- Errors in the pre-match line. If the bookmaker company is large, then shortcomings in such a plan are extremely rare and are categorized as “impossible”. But whatever it was, people can be wrong, just like the software cannot understand that the absence of a leader in one of the teams may or may not create discomfort for the club, because there is someone to replace him. This should include low quotes for favorites, which can “drain” the game due to the fact that they simply do not need it. This happens in the final stages of tournaments. For example, a football team has already become a champion 6 rounds before the end of the championship. In the remaining matches, she will release reservists, and the base will rest, although the bookmaker may not pay attention to this, offering grassroots odds. Also, the line on little-known sports or tournaments may be wrong.Few people follow such sports disciplines, so you can see mainly the average quotes on the market, and not the odds, like the best leagues.
- In live, bookmakers can make mistakes through a belated reaction to all changes during the match. This is a great opportunity to bet on an arbitrage situation that the bookmaker might overlook, especially if the event is unpopular. These include: deletions, dangerous moments, leader replacements, weather changes. All these factors in one way or another should affect the odds, as well as the rate in general. For example, in a football match, a player is removed, and the company does not react to this for 2-5 minutes, offering to bet on an event with an odds of 2.5. Of course, betters can hit the jackpot on such an error, but if the bookmaker is popular, it will roll back the data. In simple words, all such bets on an error will be returned, no one can win, and even vice versa – the office often sets limits and restrictions for the account.
- Errors when writing the names of athletes. These are quite rare situations when the wrong player is represented in the line. For example, Nick Morris and Neil Morris might appear as N. Morris and try to guess who the bookie has in mind. Of course, the office itself can miscalculate here, when the coefficients are mixed up in the wrong direction.
Separately, let us emphasize that if a match remains in the line that has already been completed, it is better not to bet on it and ignore it. It is good when the bookmaker company is not touchy and simply returns the bet amount. However, many block the account, cut the limits and restrict the bettor in every possible way for such a deception. In the rules of each company there is a special clause about errors, system failure and other situations associated with incorrect quotes. He is usually mentioned with the following sentence: “The betting company is not responsible for any errors, as well as for the actions of players in connection with such circumstances.”
Many experts and professionals consider the asymmetry of bookmaking to be a significant disadvantage, as well as an artificially induced advantage of gambling platforms that want to enrich themselves at the expense of betters. However, on the other hand, the offices are also at risk, because incorrectly exposed quotes, without the influence of the human factor or failures in the system, companies cannot be canceled. Accordingly, they are able to lose a lot of money if many players carefully analyze all events and find a good option for making money. There is nothing complicated in this, and contrary to the opinion that it is unrealistic to beat the bookmaker, we say the opposite – everything is possible, but you should be extremely careful, follow the strategy and not be exposed to excessive excitement or emotions.